HDB's Resale Price Index rose 54.2% between 2019-Q4 and 2026-Q2. URA's private residential price index rose 42.8% over the same stretch. For most of that period, resale flats gained ground on private homes.
Over the last four quarters that stopped. From 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q2, HDB's resale index moved 0.0%, while URA's private index rose 2.9%. If you are selling a flat to buy private, the recent direction has not been in your favour.
- 54.2% change in the HDB Resale Price Index since 2019-Q4 2019-Q4 to 2026-Q2 · HDB Resale Price Index (data.gov.sg)
- 42.8% change in the URA private price index since 2019-Q4 2019-Q4 to 2026-Q2 · URA Private Residential Property Price Index (SingStat Table Builder)
- 0.0% change in the HDB Resale Price Index over four quarters 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q2 · HDB Resale Price Index (data.gov.sg)
- 2.9% change in the URA private price index over four quarters 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q2 · URA Private Residential Property Price Index (SingStat Table Builder)
Two indices on one base, measuring different homes
Both indices are set at 1Q2009 = 100. That shared base is the only reason they can sit on the same chart. They do not measure the same thing.
HDB's index tracks resale flats. URA's all-residential index covers every kind of private home, including landed property. When one index sits above the other, that is not the price gap between a flat and a condominium, or between your flat and the home you want to buy. It shows how far each market has moved from its own starting point in 1Q2009, nothing more.
Executive condominiums are not in URA's index. If an EC is your next step, this comparison does not describe your market.
The private index also adjusts for what was sold. From 1Q 2015, URA computes it with a stratified hedonic regression, a method that controls for differences in the homes changing hands, such as age and unit size, so a quarter heavy with small or new units does not distort the reading. Price changes are combined using 5-quarter fixed weights. URA compiles the data from caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority, stamp duty data from the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore, and figures supplied by developers.
So what follows is a comparison of direction and pace, not of prices in dollars.
From 2019-Q4, resale flats closed some of the distance
In 2019-Q4, HDB's resale index stood at 131.5, according to HDB's data. URA's private index stood at 153.6. Private was the higher of the two readings at the start of the period.
By 2026-Q2, HDB's index had reached 202.8 and URA's 219.4. Private is still ahead, but by less than it was in 2019-Q4. The resale index rose faster in percentage terms, 54.2% against 42.8%, and ended the period closer to the private reading.
For an upgrader, that longer run was helpful in relative terms. The asset being sold appreciated faster than the index for the market being bought into. A flat owner who held through that period saw the resale side of the equation strengthen against the private side.
There is a limit. Faster percentage growth on a smaller base does not mean a smaller dollar gap. A flat and a private home can both rise, the flat faster, and the difference in dollars between them can still widen. The indices cannot tell you which happened for any pair of homes. Only transaction prices can.
Over the last four quarters, private pulled ahead again
The more recent picture points the other way. HDB's resale index was unchanged between 2025-Q2 and 2026-Q2, at 0.0%. URA's private index rose 2.9% over the same four quarters.
A flat resale market and a rising private market mean that, on the indices, the ground resale flats gained over the longer period stopped growing and began to shrink. The move is modest. A year of 2.9% against 0.0% does not undo a stretch in which resale outpaced private. But it does mark a change from the direction that held for most of the period since 2019-Q4.
That change matters more to someone about to transact than the longer trend does. If you sell and buy within months of each other, the recent pace of each market is closer to your own position than growth measured from 2019-Q4.
None of this says where either index goes next. Four quarters is a short window, and neither index carries a forecast.
What the turn means if you are upgrading
An upgrade has two sides: the price your flat fetches and the price of the home you buy. The indices speak to each side in aggregate.
On the resale side, a flat index over the last four quarters means the broad market for flats has not been adding to sale values. Your own flat may have done better or worse, depending on its town, type, age and remaining lease. The index is an average across all of them.
On the private side, a rising all-residential index means private homes as a whole became more expensive over the same four quarters. Because landed homes are in that index, the condominium market may have moved differently. A buyer looking at a particular segment or district needs figures for that segment, not the headline index.
Put together, the recent readings suggest the relative position of a typical upgrader has become less favourable over the last year, after a longer period in which it improved. Whether that holds for you depends on the specific flat and the specific home.
What to check before you commit
The indices frame the question. They do not answer it for your household. Before a decision, it is worth working through these:
- Recent resale prices for your own flat type in your town. Look at filed transactions for comparable flats, not the national index. Age and remaining lease matter.
- Recent transaction prices in the private segment you are targeting. If you want a condominium, set aside landed figures. If you are considering an EC, remember it is outside URA's index altogether.
- The timing between sale and purchase. The gap between selling and buying exposes you to whatever each market does in between. Ask how long that gap could be and how you would bridge it.
- The dollar difference, not the percentage. Work out the actual sum between your likely sale proceeds and the likely purchase price, using transaction data for the two homes in question.
- Costs that sit outside any index. Stamp duties, financing, loan limits and any rules on selling and buying in sequence all bear on whether the move works.
The quarterly readings for both indices, and how they have moved against each other, are on the Truestorey market page. Check the latest quarter there before you rely on these figures, and read the direction of both indices alongside the prices for the homes you are actually trading.
